Application of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for Pipeline Reliability Analysis

Structural reliability analysis of buried pipeline systems is one of the fundamental issues for water and wastewater asset managers. Measuring the accuracy of a reliability analysis or a failure prediction technique is an effective approach to enhancing its applicability and provides guidance on selection of reliability or failure prediction methods. The determination of threshold value for a particular pipe failure criterion provides useful information on reliability analysis. However, this threshold value is not always known. In this paper, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve has been applied where empirical and Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI) techniques are used to evaluate the accuracy of pipeline reliability analysis and to predict the failure threshold value. Multi-failure conditions, namely, corrosion induced deflection, buckling, wall thrust and bending stress have been assessed in this paper. It is hoped that choosing the optimal operating point on the ROC curve which involves both maintenance and financial issues, can be ideally implemented by combining the ROC analysis with a formal risk-cost management of underground pipelines.